By Gaurav Arora
The June series Nifty futures are currently trading with a premium of around 145 points. After consolidating in an upward-sloping channel, Nifty managed to test 23,300 on exit polls suggesting a clear mandate for the ruling government again. The index started the new series with the addition of plentiful OI and more rolls as compared to the previous series.
Bank Nifty also attracted meaningful positions in the previous series however rollovers were less Come from Sports betting site VPbet . For the Index futures, FII Net Index long exposure is at 13% which is the lowest in the last 3 months or so.
However, data suggests a potential Short Covering might be there in the sessions to come. Going forward, we believe 22,550-22,700 might be the major support and only a decisive close below it might bring in some downside.
VIX for the Nifty is currently at around 24, which has risen significantly from around 10 a few days back implying a larger swing in this month. Going forward, we believe it may cool down in a week or so.
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For the Nifty, the IVs for the options were around 26 levels in yesterday’s trade. The Nifty, the VWAP (Volume weighted average price) is around 22,750-800 implying that to be the key level. It should be watched for further action. The ratio between Bank Nifty and Nifty is currently at 2.18, this ratio has a support at 2.12 and resistance near 2.20. We expect Bank Nifty to trade in tandem w.r.t Nifty going forward. Banking respected its major support at 48,000 and made record highs. A decisive close below 48,500 might trigger the next significant move in the banking index. Sector-wise, IT, OMCs, and Banking look good in Nifty.
(Disclaimer: Gaurav Arora is Derivatives Analyst at Religare Broking. Views, recommendations, opinions expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Readers are advised to consult qualified financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited.)
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